Writing

Thought leadership on trade finance, SPV structures, and emerging opportunities

Section 301 Analysis

Analysis of Section 301c Refund Rights and Market Overlay

July 1, 2025 • 12 min read

Success is capital, analysis, and execution.

It's boring for some (Alex Skarsgård), but the execution of this combination to the best of one's ability is the task that we all, as businessmen, strive to do.

Alex Skarsgård

Note: This analysis was covered by US Finance Moves.

LBOs. Spinoffs. Special Situations. The words change, but the process is still the same. You are still on the same set of rails wherever you go in finance, so you better start getting used to navigating them.

An interesting case that came across my desk was the proposition of refund rights from the recent tariffs imposed on U.S. manufacturers and importers. Most were received with disgust, but the most contentious of them all was of course the China tariffs — the egregious Section 301c, 100%+ rate tariffs.

The tariffs weren't suggestive or performative. They were implemented, paid, and continued to be paid by increasingly upset U.S. firms. This set two things in motion: a scathing lawsuit against the U.S. that put the tariffs on the constitutional challenge track, and a separate lawsuit by a toy firm on the trade law challenge track.

The risk-averse trade is a purchase of these rights where your internal probability of refund > 50%, net of legal/operational costs. That makes it a positive-EV setup, not a guaranteed win. Over time, expectancy tilts positive if the odds are accurately estimated and disciplined sizing is applied.

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Cybersecurity

The Hidden Vulnerability Costing Small Businesses Trust (and Traffic)

January 15, 2025 • 8 min read

Most business owners don't think twice about what's missing from their website.

They hire a designer, launch the page, maybe write a few blog posts — and assume it's secure by default.

But beneath the surface, an invisible layer of protection is often forgotten: HTTP security headers. These small, silent pieces of code are designed to protect customers, preserve trust, and lock down the front door of your business before a breach ever happens.

And most sites don't have them.

Take a real-world example — anonymized here as NatureRoot Collective — an eCommerce business generating roughly 20,000 visits per month. The site looks polished, loads quickly, and is built on a popular CMS. But behind the scenes, it's missing all critical security headers.

Site Traffic Dashboard showing 20,000 visits per month

Security headers are instructions sent from the server to your visitor's browser. They define what kinds of content can be loaded, how to treat scripts, and how strict the browser should be in protecting the user.

Without them, attackers can inject malicious scripts, hijack ad space, embed your website in phishing pages, and load external scripts that appear legitimate to the user. The worst part? It all happens invisibly.

Traffic gets siphoned. Trust erodes. And you might never realize why conversion dropped.

This is where ABX Security steps in. We specialize in diagnosing and patching these silent vulnerabilities with minimal interference to your stack. Whether your site runs on WordPress, custom code, or a commercial builder, we identify what's missing and secure it — often in less than 48 hours.

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Trade Finance

How SPVs Engineer Asymmetric Payoffs in Litigation Finance

October 20, 2024 • 8 min read

Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) have emerged as powerful tools for structuring litigation finance investments, particularly in complex regulatory environments like international trade disputes. This article explores how sophisticated SPV structures can create asymmetric payoff profiles that traditional investment vehicles cannot replicate.

The key lies in understanding the unique risk-return characteristics of litigation finance and designing structures that maximize upside potential while managing downside risk through careful portfolio construction and risk management techniques.

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Section 301

The Hidden Value in Section 301 Tariff Refund Rights

October 15, 2024 • 6 min read

Section 301 tariff refund rights represent one of the most overlooked opportunities in the current market. While most investors focus on traditional asset classes, the complex regulatory landscape surrounding international trade disputes has created a unique opportunity for sophisticated investors.

This article examines the structural advantages of aggregating these rights through SPV structures and the potential for significant returns as the regulatory environment continues to evolve.

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Asset Management

Non-Custodial Asset Management: The Future of Investment Structures

October 10, 2024 • 7 min read

Traditional custodial arrangements are being challenged by innovative non-custodial approaches that offer greater flexibility and efficiency. This shift represents a fundamental change in how sophisticated investors approach asset management and risk control.

The article explores the technical and regulatory considerations that make non-custodial structures particularly attractive for complex investment strategies and alternative asset classes.

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Cybersecurity

Cybersecurity Frameworks in Financial Services: A Strategic Perspective

October 5, 2024 • 5 min read

As financial services become increasingly digitized, cybersecurity frameworks have evolved from technical requirements to strategic business enablers. This article examines how modern cybersecurity approaches can create competitive advantages in the financial services sector.

The discussion covers both technical implementation and strategic considerations, providing insights for financial services professionals looking to enhance their security posture while maintaining operational efficiency.

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